A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
